$AKTX booked a small gain here as I got spooked with some very weird intraday price action around $2.20 area. The stock went on to add $1.50 to the price from there so I missed the main move.
Moved some funds back into $CAPR and added some $GBS. Made some short term trades to push the account fwd but too trivial to mention them all here. Perhaps will drop a trade summary next time if I’m posting from a computer.
$DYAI trade broke and I sold for a small loss. Still have it on watch.
$CAPR popped with strong vol on news of competitor $SRPT failing a key trial. I sold my position mostly because I’ve been a bit jaded at this point holding shares. Plus, the pop was mainly attributable to Sarepta’s failure than Capricor’s success. I’ve got plenty of exposure to $CAPR in my IRA and have cash on sidelines if a compelling re-entry point is presented.
Bought $AKTX on chart strength and perennial pending catalysts that seem to have not come to fruition in the past. Hoping, this time it’s different especially given the recent strength in chart.
Also bought small position in $GBS which has a non invasive solution for diabetes monitoring and covid-19 testing. Test kits for covid-19 are currently hot so looking for some volume to hit this recent IPO that has a small float.
Going to make a short post going into 2021 soon. Taking two swings with me $CAPR and $DYAI.
I’ve posted enough about $CAPR on this blog and Twitter that I don’t need to repeat again why I think this small bio offers one of the best risk/reward opportunities out there. I moved a small % of funds into $DYAI earlier this week. Tax selling season is upon us and $DYAI is a cash rich biotech that is in the vaccine space. Ceo was on Fox Business a few weeks back so waiting for the story to develop. Might add more on $DYAI if the price is right.
Updating trade log after a while but have not had much to post. Changed my mind on both $NDRA and $AKTX swings. Sold $NDRA mostly flat only to pick up those shares in my IRA account; so continue to have the same exposure to the name but just no longer hold shares in IB account. $AKTX has been a disappointment on missed company deadlines and lack of liquidity. Might revisit the trade if the timing works for me.
Meanwhile, have turned my focus on $CAPR which I’m expecting to heat up going into end of year 2020. Elections are behind us, COVID-19 looks like is here to stay thru 2020 and $CAPR may have some strong news up it’s sleeve in vaccine space. Will stay patient on this swing, chart is very oversold, and vol has been low indicating bottom is in. Not too pleased with the rather giant position for this IB account but feel comfortable with holding the swing.
Got a bit tardy (again) keeping up with posting trade log here. Since last post, I sold $GRTS for a small gain, decided that I didn’t have much conviction in holding $CLBS so sold that for a 40¢ loss. In hindsight, entries for both $GRTS and $CLBS were mistimed a bit. Still interested in $GRTS so got that one on watch.
Used funds to buy more $AKTX as well start accumulating old friend $NDRA.
$AKTX is a waiting game for some bullish news. Stock has been in long consolidation, co has filed for a $30M new atm and they have catalysts lined up. All signs point to a big pump day not to mention stock is undervalued for the current pipeline.
$NDRA thesis is stock will get hot going into Fall with looming FDA update around Nov. Plus, based on most recent ER, co ramping up commercialization efforts in EU and may surprise the market by announcing some initial sales in EU. Cash runway is decent and co seems to have a plan going forward. May need patience on this one to fully realize the swing potential.
Sold $CAPR last Friday and stock ran up to $7 from my $4.88 avg. Left about $120K on the table by booking gains too soon. However, I’m good with my decision to book gains on Friday even in hindsight. Position had become too overweight and I continue to have exposure to the story via shares in my IRA account.
Used funds to add / enter new swings. Current holdings are:
$AKTX awaiting company news on either Covid trial or any other pipeline updates
$GRTS bottom play which got seriously whacked on what is considered to be decent P1 data. Oncology company with a possible vaccine pivot and trading near cash so I’m going to give this one a bit of time to work
$CLBS possible Covid catalyst upcoming based on recent company presentation and investor deck. Low float, low mkt cap and trading around cash value. That’s a good combination for good upside imo.
I’ve been a $CAPR bull for a while now and continue to like their pipeline with several potential value drivers coming up. However, I decided to exit out of my swing using Friday’s spike. Was holding 60K shares @ $4.88 avg going into Friday. Scaled out nicely @ avg $5.28 (hod was in $5.60s) so booked about $24K in gains. Two reasons for the exit:
Position had gotten very overweight in this account to a degree that it was getting a bit unhealthy for my overall holdings
Complete radio silence from the company on providing any information around either the Covid trial or the DMD program
Earnings will likely come out early Aug and I wouldn’t want that type of exposure going into earnings. Best to hold onto the shares I still have in my IRA, see what the corporate update is on the earnings call and then re-assess as a fresh potential trade in this account.
Used some of the proceeds to buy a position in $AKTX for a swing. I had got shaken out of my position when I tried to swing it earlier in June by a funding deal with Aspire but currently chart seems to be holding up as if news coming. Several catalysts seem looming with updates due on their eye program, Covid trials, etc.
Got about 2/3 of NAV in cash. Been researching over the weekend for some new swing ideas to start watching next week.
Quick update: still holding $CAPR as a swing while I continue to look for the co to execute some of the programs they have in the pipeline. Did reduce the position by 15K shares since the chart is now a bit bearish and unless co releases any strong news, I’d not be surprised if the price becomes cheaper.
Meanwhile, moved some of the funds into $AKTX. In contrast, chart for Akari has been gaining momentum and I think a channel break above $2.41 level will be very bullish for the stock. Several pending catalysts in $AKTX as well so moving funds around seemed like a good idea to me.
So here’s what happened in the second half of May. Made a few thousand dollars on my $AKTX swing. $NDRA swing was also successful with about $16K in gains. This is one ticker I’m still really torn on. Tremendous potential for the company but still unsure how quickly they can execute to their plan. Have got exposure to the ticker in another account so when the swing started working in this account, I decided to book gains and reduce risk.
As we head into June, I’ve got two swings in the IB account: $CAPR and $AKTX. I’ve got a rather large position in $CAPR in this account because I really think the company is undervalued and remains at the cusp of an inflection point. Love their pipeline and willing to wait for the story to play out. $AKTX is another one I really like with catalysts in the coming weeks. I wish I could buy more $AKTX but the account is tapped out. Might move some money around from $CAPR to $AKTX but do think that $CAPR has potential to make a bigger move than $AKTX in the short term.
$CAPR just keeps on going. I got a $1+ move from my Friday entry and I couldn’t help but book gains. Made $13K in gains for holding through the weekend. No news on the data yet. So yes, I broke my trade plan where the idea was to swing into data. Will either look for an entry if it pulls back or will continue to ride this swing out with just 10K shares that I’m still holding from $6.20s in another account.
Flipped $IDRA for a quick $1K gain so now I’m left with just $AKTX and $NDRA as my two swings in this account.
Feel like I want to just lay low for a few sessions, watch the markets and let the current swings work.
$DYAI broke out from my entry and got a nice volume spike. I sold into the spike since there was no news. Stock is still consolidating in the mid $6s and I’d like to buy again with a pullback for another swing. However, the company has earnings this week so don’t want to hold through that event. $PFNX got a nice bounce as well from my entry and I booked gains since they had ER coming up on last Thursday. Booked about $15K in total on 1-2 day swings so not going to complain. Posting trade summaries below.
Made a couple of day trades on $CAPR and booked some solid gains on the intraday volatility. On Friday, I re-bought $CAPR shares to swing into the upcoming DMD data. Holding through data will obviously be risky but going to hold about 12K shares in this account since the upside could be huge if data is positive.
Going into mid-May, holding $AKTX, $CAPR, $IDRA and $NDRA as my current swings. Both $AKTX and $IDRA have upcoming data catalysts in Q2. $NDRA could be a longer term swing depending on how the story unfolds on upcoming ER (plan to hold through the ER most of my position if not full position). For $CAPR, I’ll be looking to sell into any positive news the company releases over the coming days.
$AKTX delivered the news I was looking for. However, give the lack of usual volume spike, I booked gains and exited the trade. Locked about $12K there.
$CREG was a flip on compliance news so booked what the mini-pump gave me. Could go big given low float but not going to hang around simply on hope. Was a decent $6K gainer.
Have got $DYAI, $PFNX, $NDRA for current swings. Like all three at current levels possibly for big moves. $NDRA is probably my least favorite- got big potential but not liking how the ticker has been recently trading.
$CAPR got ATM news last night AH and I’ll be looking for shares today to build a position ahead of DMD data release likely next week. This will be a risky swing but have it all laid out in my head. Remains to be seen how well the trade executes.
Re-entered $CAPR around $2.50 area on pullback from $2.75 high and as chart consolidated there. Between two of my accounts, I believe I added 50K $CAPR. Co announced strong COVID related news today and stock rocketed from $2.60 to $11+. I traded poorly on my exits but was having a lot of issues on my executions which freaked me out a bit given the size of my position at market open. In summary, between the two accounts that had $CAPR shares, I banked $101K today so pretty pleased with how the swing thesis played out. Really like the progress this co is making so will keep the ticker on watch for any additional opportunities.
Also, sold $NDRA for a quick $12K gain on their patent news.
This account has grown literally from $175K just a couple of days back to over $250K today.
Current swings: $AKTX and $CREG
So here’s what happened since my last blog post. Coronavirus and COVID-19 have become household names, $SPY melted from a high of 335 level on Feb 19 to lows of 218 on Mar 23 - that is a drop of 35.8% in just about a month’s time. Oil futures went negative just this past week. Drop in major indices and big caps brought a lot of volatility and depressed valuations to small caps. This in turn created a lot of opportunities for entering and adding to value swing positions.
To take advantage of the situation, I added an additional $30K in funds to this account. I am considering this as a loan to the account and will take a distribution back out to myself at some point.
7/17 Update: Took out $32K in distribution to myself so this cancels out the $30K in funds that I had loaned out to my IB account.
With this in context, let me get to the trade recap from the last couple of months. I executed several trades - most of them worked and some didn’t. I also did a few very short term swings and day trades which is not my usual style. In summary, I’ve got too many trades to recap here in retrospective but in the spirit of full transparency on this account and the blog, I will post below all the trades from my last blog entry to date.
$CAPR was a monster swing and think this one has still some juice to go so will look for additional opportunities to trade this ticker. $ALDX was a nice gainer too. Pretty solid returns overall on the account and I am pleased with the ramp.
Currently holding swings on $AKTX, $NDRA and about 33% of NAV in cash for new opportunities.
Sold $GNCA for about 10¢-15¢ loss. Could’ve held but wanted to use funds to add $CAPR which I really like at current levels. Also added a small 5K position on $NDRA.
Cut losses on $CGA since chart was looking weak. Been trading very weird with sudden volume spikes followed by little to no bid support. Position had grown somewhat overweight and with bad news on China virus still hanging in there, I don’t think it bodes particularly well for China ag stocks. $SEED has been weak as well. Will consider another swing if/when it dips enough and finds supports.
Used funds to add to $CAPR position. Chart has been consolidating after a high volume day so looking for it to break above $2 range.
Also added back $GNCA shares under $2.30 mark for another swing into data run up.
Very likely, I’ll just look to ride these two swings out for coming days/weeks unless chart falls apart or thesis changes.
Need to work on patience. $GNCA worked nicely from $2.25 levels to $2.70 today. Sold too soon again but captured a small slice of it.
Re-bought chart/swing positions in $CGA and $CAPR.
Had booked gains on both these names on the initial move. Thesis continues to be strong on both names. Bought shares today since both charts are consolidating above the 50MA and showing strength. $CAPR is likely a safer bet but $CGA could see a bigger move in the short term. Will remain patient with $CAPR. For $CGA, will look to cut losses, if chart shows degradation.
Booked gains in both $CAPR and $CGA. Sold $CAPR too soon (boredom exit) before the strong volume day but still booked about $3.5K in gains.
Had a lot of conviction on $CGA chart and thesis so used those funds to scale in additional $CGA shares. This is a thin Chinese name so the risk of building a larger position was not lost on me. Chart worked out nicely and sold the entire position for a $7.5K gain. If this holds $3.70 area next week, this could have legs. I’d have left partial position in there for a day 2 but given that breakout was on Friday, I decided to exit. Didn’t want to hold through the weekend risking any negative news on US-China trade deal.
Did buy a small position in $FAMI which is in the same China ag sector for continued China exposure into next week. Don’t know much about the company but chart looked right to me for an entry.
Also re-bought $GNCA for another swing to $2.50-$3 levels from here. Really liking both daily and weekly charts. The trick here will be to be patient and not get shaken out.
$GNCA chart failed - could not break $2.30 and seemed like having trouble holding $2.25. I decided to cut it flat. Might present a better entry. No issues if I miss the entry in this account since I’ve got exposure to $GNCA in another account.
Also sold $NDRA for a small gain on a low volume pop we saw on Friday.
Used funds to continue to accumulate $CAPR. Also started a new swing in $CGA. Beat down China chart that seems like trying to reverse. China trade news still circling the markets so China tickers are on strong watch.
Do I wish this particular account was a lot bigger? Heck, yeah. Have got too many tickers on watch but cannot play them all. At least, not yet. That’s the fun (and pains) of growing a smaller account and I just need to trust the process for now - results will follow.
Selling $CLPS too soon was a mistake like I thought it’d be. Stock went from my entry under $3 to $7s in less than 15 days. Nailed the entry and the scaling in part; not so much the scaling out piece. Lesson learned for next time.
$GNCA chart looked to get better on Tuesday, so I added some.
Started $NDRA chart/swing idea. Would like this to breach and hold the 50MA for continuation.
